Where Has the Excitement Gone? The Fall of the Goal Scoring
A key narrative of the EPL this campaign has been the drop of goals scored in open-play scenarios and the way clubs are netting more from set-plays instead.
Comparing goal sources to matchday 11 the prior season, we see a drop of 39 goals in open-play and an increase of 26 from team set-pieces and spot-kicks, resulting in 13 fewer overall.
Considering the bigger picture, the number of shots clubs are making reveal an incredible 370 fewer in open-play than this time previously.
Regardless of the big increase in dead-ball scores, records show just two more attempts created from these situations outside of penalties, showing how effective sides have been at discovering methods to net from set-pieces.
Goal Averages Show the Tale
The 301 goals notched in 110 matches to date calculates at nearly 2.75 goals per game, if maintained for the whole season could be the least for five years, back in 2020-21 (2.69 average).
Yet merely 196 goals coming in open-play equates to 1.78 per game and is tracking to be the least for since 2009-10, from 16 years ago (1.76 per game).
That campaign is also the unique EPL campaign to witness goals scored at a higher rate from non-penalty set-pieces than this season's rate of 0.77 per game (0.79).
Which Teams Are Most Responsible?
In terms of scoring from open-play, Wolves have recorded the most significant drop, netting a mere four in 11 matches, 10 less than at this stage last season.
Outside of Wolves, the Premier League's fall in open play goals is largely a London phenomenon, with five of the London's seven clubs recording at least five goals fewer from open-play than the prior season.
To be fair, this is mainly because their scoring lots of goals at the early stages of last season as opposed to them having difficulty to score in open play this campaign.
At the same time City have seen the biggest increase, with almost every one of their 23 goals to date coming in open play.
Set-Piece Success
Looking at the promoted teams with the relegated sides they took the place of. Play-off winners Sunderland have netted an additional three goals in open play than the Saints managed in matchday 11 on their way to relegation the previous campaign.
When it comes to goals scored from set-pieces (aside from penalties), the Gunners and Chelsea have experienced the most significant jump, with each team compensating for the reduction of five scores that they've netted in open-play with an equal amount from set-pieces.
Man United have netted twice as many scores from set-plays as they achieved in matchday 11 last season before their coach assumed control, while Sunderland again prove better at netting than the fellow red-and-whites that went down.
Man City appear not to have received the memo about scoring more from set-pieces, since they've netted a reduction of three than the previous campaign, like Nottingham Forest, though this may result from the altered approach they're working to install.
League-Wide Trends
Six teams – Arsenal, the Blues, the Cottagers, the Magpies, Spurs and West Ham – are this season's top trend-setters by netting less scores from open play and additional from set-pieces, while City represent the only side to defy the pattern to date by performing the contrary.
It remains to be seen to see if clubs persist to depend greatly on set-pieces as the season goes on or if they regain their general attacking flair and start converting additional scores in open-play too.
