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Well. From one perspective, the nation's long-running bid to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to host the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to many people who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to succeed. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the oil producers that offered the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a summit hindered from the top if his administration led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.