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Two days remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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